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Rounding Up Emerging Trends in the Mobile Industry

A bit  bit of research on = emerging trends in the overall mobile industry, originally done for a client. Fairly broad scope.

  • Deck on Emerging Trends In Mobile Virtualization
  • $7 billion expected to be spent on mobile applications in 2010
  • 1.2 billion mobile phones shipped globally in 2009 (North America is 180 million)
  • 175 million smart phones (15%) worldwide  (Symbian 47%, RIM 20% iPhone 14%, Windows Mobile 9%, Android 4%)
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  • More than 3 billion people on the planet are now mobile subscribers, and until the recent economic downturn, double-digit revenue growth had become almost a way of life in the mobile industry.
  • Over the past couple of years, the global mobile market has added more than one billion new subscriptions, sold two billion new devices, and generated more than $300 billion in mobile data revenues.
  • In the next five years, according to a recent report, the global market will add another 1.7 billion subscriptions; India and China will add 27 percent of them.
  • Eight Emerging Mobile Trends
    • Devices targeted to the population and environment of emerging markets
    • Mobile gaming
    • Mobile reading
    • Mobile social networking
    • Mobile video
    • Mobile finance
    • Location-based services
    • Mobile advertising
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MEF predicts Top 10 mobile media trends for 2010
  1. Fragmentation and variance amongst handsets and now application stores will continue to plague the industry, however the growth of applications on the Android platform will close the gap on Apple’s App Store.
  2. Operator enabling services will start to be widely deployed, facilitating the growth of rich media content that is simpler, faster and offers a better user experience.
  3. Media publishers will start to experiment with micro-payments, subscription service models and alternative payment methods which challenge the operators’ dominance, with Rupert Murdoch’s decision to charge for online media content highlighting an already fierce debate.
  4. Books will emerge as a new and popular content category for smartphones.
  5. Technology innovation will continue, with content developers experimenting with 3D mobile video viewers and augmented reality for mobile.
  6. The emerging risk of illicit charging by in-app billing will be met by firm regulatory action.
  7. Significant tightening of premium rate regulation in the Atlantic region will spread across the world.
  8. 2010 will be the year of multiplatform dual-delivery of content including music, video and games, across mobile phones, TVs and PCs.
  9. The growing consumer demand for data-heavy services will put greater pressure on networks, with flat rate data tariffs increasingly subjected to stringent download limits.
  10. Complexity, confusion and ambiguity in the application of rights to the mobile platform will be addressed seriously in 2010.
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Mystic MIG reveals mobile predictions for 2010
  1. Ad Funded Interactive Services
  2. M-Commerce and Micro Payments
  3. Return of SMS Voting to P-TV (meh – Jeffrey)
  4. The year of Google Android (yes -Jeffrey)
  5. Augmented Reality (cool and techy, but still meh – Jeffrey)
  6. Mobile Internet (yes, if we can get over the new data cap hurdle – Jeffrey)
  7. Mobile Coupons (yes – groupon, living social – Jeffrey)
  8. Smartphone Growth (iPhone4, Windows 7 Mobile (I want to say meh, but it’s still a big play by a big player) -Jeffrey)
  9. Monetisation of Social Media (Foursquare, etc – Jeffrey)
  10. Rich Media Ad Formats (iAd, medialets -Jeffrey)

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Telmap reveals location-based predictions for 2010
  1. In order to support LBS anywhere, anytime, multiple location technologies such as GPS, Wi-Fi, Cell ID, and A-GPS will be used, resulting in location enablement in low-end, non GPS devices.
  2. Location will start to enrich core services such as SMS and voice, creating a more dynamic and compelling location offering for users. In 2010, we will see this trend penetrating the low-end devices market.
  3. With the rise in GPS shipments, mobile operators will realize the potential behind expanding their LBS scope to reach the mass market. Operators will need to focus on creating a more advanced mobile location experience for the mass market whilst still investing efforts in rolling out innovative services for the high-end device market.
  4. The explosion of mobile social networking has marked the advent of applications that integrate location into social communities. This is set to become even more popular as the ability to tag favourite places and share content in a simple and interactive way becomes a reality.
  5. Location –Based Advertising will come of age as we see more players showcasing location based advertising capabilities as a means to generate complementary revenue streams. The industry will continue the process of defining location dependent ad-based business models that will possess ample opportunity for success.
  6. The industry has already realised the need to implement location based services that are not intrusive to the end user. 2010 will see a revolution in the way users receive information so that it is targeted and relevant to them and their location but at the same time doesn’t threaten their privacy and safety.
  7. 2010 will see the tipping point for enterprise LBS. As devices and networks strengthen and mature, the market will come to realise that the industry is now ready to support and benefit from providing location capabilities for enterprise uses.
  8. Although a number of channels are available to content providers and developers to reach end users (e.g., app. stores), basic economic laws still apply; content providers and developers still need to invest significant resources in building brand and marketing power, which remains a challenge for now. This leaves the operators with the upper hand to win in the LBS marketplace.
  9. Internet brands and Original Device Manufacturers will continue to rival mobile operators by providing location-aware mobile services to end users. However, operators are better positioned to win the battle when it comes to critical location based services such as navigation, enterprise, people and asset tracking, which require advanced billing and customer care capabilities that only the operator can provide.
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Excellent three part writeup on Top 10 Mobile Trends of 2010, from ReadWriteWeb

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